Mets can close in on Wild Card as they welcome Padres to Citi Field (2024)

Fresh off a series win against the Marlins, the Mets (30-37) welcome the Padres (37-35) to Citi Field for three games. This presents the perfect opportunity for New York to make some head way in the Wild Card race, as crazy as that is to say considering their record and play during much of this season. They currently sit 4.5 games behind San Diego, while falling three back of the Giants for the final National League playoff spot—it is worth noting that they also trail the Cardinals, the Reds, the Diamondbacks, the Cubs, the Pirates, and the Nationals. This is the first time these two clubs have squared off in 2024. The two sides split six games last season, which each squad taking two at home.

As previously mentioned, the Mets took two of three from Miami at Citi Field. The jetlag hit hard on Tuesday, as the Mets had no answer for Jesús Luzardo and the Marlins’ bullpen in a 4-2 defeat. The lone bright spot was a two-run single from Mark Vientos, which gave the Mets their lone lead of the game with a two-run double in the bottom of the second. Some shoddy defense helped contribute to the game-winning run scoring against Tylor Megill in the fifth, as well as the insurance run in the ninth inning.

The Mets got back on track with a 10-4 drubbing of Miami on Wednesday. The team clobbered three homers—Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor—to back David Peterson, whose second start wasn’t quite as effective as his first. Tyrone Taylor also picked up the second four-hit game of his career, and his first in front of actual people and not cardboard cutouts.

The Mets concluded the series with a thrilling 3-2 walk-off win. The Mets were being no-hit into the sixth before Bader broke it up with a single. The Mets’ offense remained mostly stifled from there, and home runs from Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. had the Mets trailing 2-1 into the ninth. That’s when J.D. Martinez provided the heroics with a two-run dinger to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Martinez has been heating up now that he’s got his footing under him in New York after a delayed start to the season. Since May 13, he owns a 142 wRC+ while slashing .274/.336/.500 with five homers and 18 runs batted in in 106 at-bats.

San Diego currently has a tenuous grasp on the second Wild Card spot in the NL. They enter this series as winners of three straight and five of six overall. They have been carried by their offense, which has been great since May 1. In that span, they have the highest team batting average (.272) and on-base percentage (.335) in the majors, while their 128 wRC+ as a team ranks second to the Yankees. They are led by Fernando Tatis Jr., whose .384 batting average, 1.109 OPS, and 216 wRC+ since May 25 are tops among all qualified NL hitters.

Friday, June 14: Sean Manaea vs. Matt Waldron at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2024): 60.2 IP, 60 K, 25 BB, 6 HR, 4.30 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 112 ERA-

Manaea had a rough go of it across the pond, giving up six earned runs on seven hits over 3 ²⁄₃ innings. The roof caved in on the Mets’ left-handed in a six-run fourth after he hurled three scoreless frames. Marte’s defense did him no favors, which partially helped the flood gates open and led to his early demise. He surrendered two homers in the inning after giving up just four in his previous 11 starts/60 innings. He’s now given up six runs in each of his last two starts after giving up three or fewer runs in each of his last seven outings.

Waldron (2024): 69.1 IP, 68 K, 21 BB, 6 HR, 3.76 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 98 ERA-

Waldron is enjoying a solid sophom*ore season after earning a few starts for San Diego last year. The former 18th round pick, who started out with Cleveland before being shipped out as part of the Mike Clevinger trade, throws a knuckleball, which is rare in the game today. Even rarer than the traditional knuckleballer, it’s not his primary pitch, as he relies mostly on his four seam fastball. After a few rough starts early in the season, he’s been on a great streak, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts. Over that span, he owns a 1.78 ERA and a 2.07 FIP with 39 strikeouts, 8 walks, and 1 HR allowed in 35 ¹⁄₃ innings.

Saturday, June 15: José Quintana vs. Adam Mazur at 4:10 PM EDT on WPIX

Quintana (2024): 66.1 IP, 44 K, 23 BB, 11 HR, 5.29 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 137 ERA-

June has not been kind to Quintana so far. He has failed to pitch beyond four innings in either of his two starts, going four innings in his June 2 outing against the Diamondbacks (three earned runs, four hits, four strikeouts, three walks, two home runs allowed), and 3 ²⁄₃ innings in his last outing in London against the Phillies (three earned runs, six hits, one strikeout, two walks, no home runs allowed). With Christian Scott potentially returning to the team in the coming weeks and Kodai Senga on track to return some time after the All Star break, Quintana’s rotation spot could be in jeopardy, and he has done little to inspire confidence that he deserves to keep his regular turn.

Mazur (2024): 9.0 IP, 4 K, 7 BB, 1 HR, 9.00 ERA, 6.04 FIP, 235 ERA-

Mazur was called up earlier this month to make his ML debut for San Diego. The 2022 second round pick (53rd overall) had a strong debut against the Angels, hurling six innings of one-run, two-hit ball in a no decision. However, his second start against the Diamondbacks was significantly worse. In that appearance, he was tattooed for eight earned runs on eight hits in just three innings. One of his biggest issues in his brief career has been walks, as he’s issued seven free passes in nine innings.

Sunday, June 16: Tylor Megill vs. Dylan Cease at 1:40 PM EDT on WPIX

Megill (2024): 25.2 IP, 32 K, 11 BB, 1 HR, 3.16 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 82 ERA-

Megill was cruising in his last start...until he wasn’t. In just his fourth start since returning from the IL, the right-hander looked to be in complete control through four frames. He struck out eight and allowed a run on two hits, taking a lead into the fifth. That’s when things fell apart, and he couldn’t escape the frame, exiting with his team behind by two. An error by Mark Vientos contributed to an unearned run, but he still looked considerably less sharp than he had in the first four innings.

Cease (2024): 83.0 IP, 101 K, 23 BB, 9 HR, 3.36 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 88 ERA-

Cease has been exactly what San Diego has needed since they acquired him via trade from the White Sox in March. He currently leads Padres pitchers with a 2.0 fWAR, which is good for eighth among all NL starters. He is coming off a strong start against the Athletics, where he hurled six innings of one-run ball while striking out eight. His season high for strikeouts, incidentally, is 12 against the Cubs back on May 8. Since he spent most of his career in the AL, he’s only faced the Mets once, back in 2019, when he gave up four runs in seven innings to take the loss against Zack Wheeler.